Sunday, February 12, 2012

Syrian Rebels Plot Their Next Moves: A TIME Exclusive (Time.com)

While the civil war in Syria has been, for the most part, fearsomely asymmetrical to the regime's advantage, the government has been hit by shadowy elements, including the assassination of a general in Damascus on Saturday and bombings in the commercial center of Aleppo a day before. Still, the loosely organized anti-regime forces that go under the name Free Syrian Army are struggling to forge a united front -- or even a set of priorities and tactics. TIME's Rania Abouzeid sat in on a meeting in Turkey of rebels from northern Syria as they tried to plot out a campaign, even as the regime is believed to be mining the border and massing troops in the area.

The former captain quickly peeled off his dripping wet black jacket, took off his shoes and made his way toward the sobya -- a stove that acts as a heater -- a few steps in from the door, to dry off. His deputy, a sergeant, hung up his military jacket, the only part of his uniform he still wore, before removing his drenched socks and huddling near the stove. The two defectors had just crossed the mountainous frontier from Syria to Turkey to attend the meeting that was about to take place. "The device you made doesn't work," the captain told Abu Hikmat, a bearded, shaggy-haired man in a black ivy cap who, like most of the other men in the room, was seated on a thin mattress on the floor. "What? Really? Let's talk later," Abu Hikmat says. (PHOTOS: Syria Under Siege: Photographs by Alessio Romenzi)

There was more pressing business on Thursday night in this safe house in a village not far from the Turkish border with Syria. For the next three hours, the 11 men in the small, smoky room discussed tactics and strategies to "liberate" the northern Syrian region of Idlib. Peaceful protests were not part of their plans.

TIME is withholding the real names of the participants, who were largely from the battered northern Syrian town of Jisr al-Shughour, to protect them. There were four defectors from the Syrian army, three representatives of Syrian refugees from Yayladagi camp (the largest of several camps in Turkey), a few more Syrian refugees who weren't staying in the camps but were responsible for smuggling supplies including food, phones and light weapons to defectors on the other side of the border, and a self-described Syrian military strategist living in exile that we'll call "the doctor," because that's how the men in the room addressed him.

Abu Hikmat, a civilian "revolutionary commander" who describes himself as a "bridge that supplies pass over" opens the discussion. "We don't have ammunition," he says. "We need money for supplies."

"The opposition that has money is the Muslim Brotherhood, [radical Saudi-based Sunni cleric Sheikh Adnan] Arour, and the Free Syrian Army command. Forget about them, they won't help you," the doctor says. "The Free Syrian Army in Turkey is a game, a fa?ade to tell the world that that there is a command. I am here to tell you that nobody on the outside says you are militias, everybody knows that [Turkey-based FSA commander] Riad al-Asaad is controlled by the Turks, the Syrian National Council (the de facto opposition group) represents itself. The revolution inside must unite and every area should set up an operations command center. I'm here to help you with that."

The men listen intently as the doctor, a stocky man with a bushy white beard, thick gray hair and a bulbous nose, begins to outline his plan. A metal teapot bubbles on the sobya. A dozen small, hourglass tea cups are filled and passed around. The doctor lights up his pipe. "We must liberate Idlib because it's easier, the number of security forces in Idlib is less than elsewhere," he says. (PHOTOS: Free Syrian Army Joins Anti-Assad Protests)

"You're wrong doctor," says the captain, a handsome, intense man who, despite his relatively low rank, is clearly a leader. "There are 1,500 soldiers in Khirbet al-Jouz alone," he says, a village just across the border from the Turkish village of Guvecci.

"What I'm saying," the doctor continues, "is that liberating the governorate of Idlib is better than liberating a village like Khirbet al-Jouz. We need to make big strategic gains. Europeans won't send their children here to die for us. We must liberate an area. If a group needs ammunition what can it do?" he asks rhetorically. "If we have 10 guns, we'll sell two, buy ammunition and overrun a checkpoint. Don't wait for London or Paris. We are men, we are brave, the only thing we lack is organization. There are at least 1,000 revolutionaries in Idlib."

"Are they all with us?" asks Jihad, a mustachioed refugee staying in Yayladagi.

"Most of them," replies the captain.

READ: Syria's Clashing Armies

"How many men can you gather?" the doctor asks the room. "We want fighters."

Omar, 40, a brawny man the others refer to as "sheikh" speaks up. "At least 100, but we need guns. Every person able to get a weapon wants to fight."

"Brother," the doctor says, "I went to [the Libyan rebel stronghold of] Benghazi. They told me how it started. When it took off nobody had a gun. They took over weapons depots with sticks, they lost only seven men in the first attack."

"I'm just waiting for a gun," Omar says. "We will today accept weapons from [former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon, should he wake from his coma and offer them to us. When you see children killed, that's what you do."

"We are prepared to become human bombs," Jihad says. "You know we did not have this idea of suicide bombing in Syria before." He turns to the captain, "I'm ready. Just tell me what to do." (WATCH: Why They Protest: Egypt, Libya and Syria)

The captain taps Jihad on the knee. "Calm down brother. Why do you get so agitated?" he says. "We're all ready."

"I just don't want to go back, we have to move forward," Jihad says.

Somebody cracks open a window, letting in a burst of icy air. It's raining outside, but inside the room is stiflingly warm. The ashtrays quickly filled, but nobody bothered to empty them. More tea is poured. In the corner, a small television is set to Al-Jazeera Arabic channel. It's muted, but beaming amateur video of events in Syria. Every now and then, some of the men glance at it, read the latest urgent news splashed across the screen, and turn back to the discussion.

"The only thing we lack is experience and organization," the doctor says. "We must have strategic plans."

Kalashnikovs, he says, were too expensive (they're going for $1,200 on the Turkish black market), and required a certain level of skill to successfully hit a target. Turkish automatics were a cheaper, more readily available option, and easier to use. A plan was decided about the number and type of weapons each autonomous armed group should possess. (TIME was asked not to divulge the numbers.)

"How many checkpoints have you overrun?" the doctor asks.

"1,000," Abu Hikmat says, speaking quickly.

"1,000? Give me a real number. Tell me you hit five," the doctor says, brushing off the boast. "My brothers, we have 14 governorates and hundreds of groups operating alone within each governorate."

"Why?" asks the captain. "Why can they come up with a name for the protests every Friday and we can't agree on other things?" (PHOTOS: Bomb Blast In Damascus)

The men, all devout Sunni Muslims, blame the Muslim Brotherhood. They are deeply suspicious of its role in the revolution. Some say it is arming its supporters but not helping them attack loyalist troops. Rather, most suspect it is creating sleeper cells that will be activated after Syrian President Bashar Assad falls.

"I was around in the 80s. They sold us then and they'll sell us again," the doctor says. "The Ikhwan [that is, the Muslim Brotherhood] and [its exiled leader Ali Sadreddine] Bayanouni sold us."

(In a separate interview, the doctor elaborates, saying that in the 80s the political wing of the Brotherhood, Tanzim al-Ikhwan, betrayed members of the military wing to the Syrian regime, fueling animosity. Others aren't so sure that was the case. Omar "the sheikh" -- who says he is not a member of the Brotherhood -- agrees that the Ikhwan made mistakes in the 80s, but he doesn't believe they're setting up sleeper cells now. Yes, they are distributing arms only to their supporters, he says, "but so what? If you have guns, you are going to give them to your people, you're not going to share them. It is logical.")

"I want to ask a question," Jihad says. "We want a democratic civil state and we will vote for that. Who is going to force me to vote for Ikhwan? How will they take over?"

"They are counting on the revolution weakening and they will ride in on foreign tanks, that's the Ikhwan's plan," the doctor says. "Revolutions succeed either at the hands of the country's sons or through foreign intervention. When you win..."

"Inshallah," the men say in unison, interrupting him with the Arabic for "God willing."

"When you win," the doctor continues, "set up military councils in every area so that you can gather the guns. These revolutionary councils will then form the backbone of any transitional government. You have to make sure they don't steal your revolution, the Ikhwan and the ones on TV. Have you heard them offer any plans?"

"No," the men say, almost in unison.

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"If I see one of those men in the national council after the revolution strut in and try to claim a role, I swear I will kill him," Jihad says.

Abu Hikmat's telephone rings. He was a trader in Jisr al-Shughour before the death of his brother at a checkpoint outside the city turned him into a revolutionary. "How many phones?" he asks the caller. "15? I want 50. Get me 50. He was supposed to get us 150, if he can't we don't want to work with him."

The discussion in the room continues despite the fact that Abu Hikmat's phone rings at least four times in the next half an hour. He is busy organizing supplies of nine volt batteries, and phones.

"I have three ships full of Libyan weapons but I can't get even a Kalashnikov to you," the doctor says, "because [Turkish Prime Minister Recip Tayyip] Erdogan won't let them in. We've talked to [other Arab leaders TIME was asked not to identify], but it's hard." (WATCH: Ideas for the Future from Arab Youth)

Omar quietly takes his leave from the group, does his ablutions and returns to pray in a corner of the room. He faces Mecca, his back to the circle of men.

"Brothers, nobody is going to support you from outside," the doctor says.

"We won't go back, we have said, we will not stop until he is toppled!" Abu Hikmat says, getting agitated. "So what can we do? What about a no-fly zone?"

"It's not going to happen, get it out of your heads," the doctor says.

"Doctor, we say 'Allahu Akbar!' and we intend to liberate our land from Assad's forces!" Abu Hikmat says, his voice rising with his emotion.

The doctor remains calm. He takes a puff from his pipe. "How? I want a plan."

The discussion turns to an improvised explosives device that was tested that morning and failed to detonate. "We have to explode something that will take them a month and a half to repair," Jihad says.

Omar, who has rejoined the group, says any potential target must take "more than two hours to fix," casting a questioning glance at Abu Hikmat.

"I'm working within my means," Abu Hikmat says defensively. They debate targets and where to place the explosives. They will seize military trucks ferrying supplies to troops, confiscate their cargo and block roads with the burnt vehicles, they decide. They will cut off army supply routes, and overrun checkpoints. (READ: Syria's Splintered Opposition: Who Is Running the War Against the Regime?)

"Inshallah, you will hear good news soon," the captain tells the doctor.

"I know what our officers have studied. With all due respect," the doctor says turning to the defectors, "don't expect too much from our loyalist soldiers. Our officers study army-to-army combat, not this. The presence of a high-ranking officer doesn't necessarily mean he knows more than you do. You need an explosives expert."

The captain points to his deputy, sergeant Ahmad, an explosives engineer.

"We chose the captain to lead us because he is one of us," Jihad says. "He understands us."

"Stop it you're embarrassing me," the captain says, as the men all laugh.

"The captain is successful and respected because he took off his uniform and is with you," the doctor says. "Riad al-Asaad gives speeches and wears his uniform. He isn't here with you."

The captain's phone rings, but the discussion continues. "What? Nail bombs? How many dead?" he says. (The captain later explains that the regime is using nail bombs in residential areas, a claim that, like so many in the war in Syria, is difficult to verify.) The toll is low, one man, but the men in the room all knew him. A few offer a "may God rest his soul."

"Doctor, if this continues for another three months we will have something worse than Al-Qaeda to deal with. The drunks, the womanisers, they're not only devout now, they're becoming extremists," the captain says. "Won't that scare Western capitals into helping us?"

"Europe is about interests, that's it," the doctor says. "They worked with [Libyan revolutionary Abdelhakim] Belhadj, I know him and he is practically Al-Qaeda, they don't care. They just want somebody organized to deal with."

The talk turns to Afghanistan and how the West armed and supported Mujahideen fighters against the Soviets, before the doctor wrests it back to the present. "Now, what will benefit us is to establish an operations room. Let's work on that," he says.

"Doctor, your words are golden," Abu Hikmat says. He's calmed down. "We must unite and have an operations room. We, the revolutionaries of Jisr al-Shughour are united," he says, gesturing around the room. "As well as in Idlib. You have boosted our morale and given us knowledge."

The doctor gets up to leave. He hugs and kisses each man. "I hope to see you again soon," he tells Abu Hikmat. "I hope so too," Abu Hikmat replies. "But these days, who knows? Death may come sooner."

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